Nepal – the country of the Buddha and the Mt. Everest

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Posts Tagged ‘GDP’

These Countries Will Dominate the World – In 2050

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on June 21, 2015

By Lola Bailey

“By 2050, the collective size of the economies we currently deem ’emerging’ will have increased five-fold and will be larger than the developed world.” – HSBC Global Research

Times, they are a-changing. An economic report by HSBC has predicted a seismic shift in the structure of the global economy, with the economic centre of gravity shifting from the north Atlantic to central Asia – particularly China and India. If the predictions are true (and it must be said that economists are not known for agreeing with each other) the world will look very, very different indeed.

Through a complex but fascinating analysis of economic systems and infrastructure and serious number crunching, HSBC’s analysts’ economics prowess has projected the wealth of countries (GDP and per capita income) in 2050. You can read the full report: The World in 2050; Quantifying the Shift in the Global Economy here.

Read on to discover which countries will be the world’s richest – in 2050:

1. China

In 2050, China is expected to be the world’s richest, and probably the most powerful, economy, with a GDP of $24.62 trillion and a per capita income of $17,759. China’s income per capita will still only be roughly a third of that in the US so there is room for considerably more growth. On the minus side, it will no longer be the most populous place on earth – (spoiler alert) that honour will go to India.

Read the rest of this entry »

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Analysis: Finding the roots of Nepal’s rural mountain poverty

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on February 11, 2014

By Kyle Knight

CHESKAM, 11 February 2014 (IRIN) – Despite six decades of development interventions and nearly a billion dollars in annual foreign assistance, Nepal is still struggling to combat rural poverty. Some experts and local leaders say improving the lives of the rural poor requires patient community-driven initiatives and proper management of the resources communities already have, rather than large-scale strategies. 

According to 2010 data from the International Fund for Agriculture Development (IFAD), a specialized agency of the United Nations, there are approximately 8.5 million rural poor in Nepal. In the Human Development Index of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), Nepal is ranked at 157. Two-thirds of citizens rely on agriculture for their economic well-being, and the World Bank notes that the sector contributes 40 percent of the country’s GDP.  Read the rest of this entry »

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For The First Time Ever, Combined GDP Of Poor Countries Exceeds That Of Rich Ones (CHART)

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on August 29, 2013

By David YanofskyPosted:

Quartz:

gdp

For the first time ever, the combined gross domestic product of emerging and developing markets, adjusted for purchasing price parity, has eclipsed the combined measure of advanced economies. Purchasing price parity—or PPP for short—adjusts for the relative cost of comparable goods in different economic markets.

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According to the International Monetary Fund—the supplier of this data—emerging and developing economies will have a purchasing price parity-adjusted GDP of $42.8 trillion in 2013, while that of emerging economies will be $44.4 trillion. In other words, emerging markets will create $1.6 trillion more value in goods and services than advanced markets this year.

Advanced economies are, according to the IMF, the 34 nations that result from combining the members of the G7, euro area countries, and the 4 “newly industrialized Asian economies”—Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea. The world’s 150 other nations are considered emerging or developing.

Excluding the largest advanced economy, the United Sates, and the largest emerging economy, China, which both account from more than 30% of their respective group’s total GDP, the data show that the PPP-adjusted GDP of poorer nations surpassed that of richer ones in 2009.

gdp2

It’s worth keeping in mind that the emerging economies have strength in numbers. Not only are there more emerging and developing nations; those nations also boast a larger combined population. Read the rest of this entry »

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Nine Reasons Why This Economy Feels So Bad

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on August 8, 2012

The recent slump has been unusually painful, and the feeble recovery has been disappointing. But today’s economy seems even worse than it actually is.
 
Man holding empty wallet

H. ARMSTRONG ROBERTS / RETROFILE / GETTY IMAGES

Recent U.S. economic troubles are often referred to as the Great Recession, implicitly equating them with conditions during the Great Depression. Yet by many measures the economic deterioration of the past few years is not as serious as in some earlier downturns. The drop in GDP from peak to trough for the 2007-09 recession was indeed severe, 4.7% compared with 3.2% for the 1973-75 recession. Still, it doesn’t begin to compare with the 26% decline of the early 1930s, the 18% of the 1937-38 recession or even the 12% of the often-overlooked 1945 slump. And peak unemployment was higher not only during the Great Depression, but also during the recession of the early 1980s.

Moreover, if you look beyond the national averages, several past recessions have been more destructive in certain specific regions. Rust Belt manufacturing was badly battered in the 1970s – indeed, Detroit and the U.S. auto industry have never fully recovered. And the Oil & Gas business, especially in Texas, needed a long time to bounce back from the 1980s. All things considered, the recent recession may have been worse than average, but it was hardly unprecedented – and nowhere near comparable to what happened in the 1930s. So why do today’s economic troubles seem even worse than they are? Here are nine reasons:

The recovery has been hugely disappointing. Compared with today’s feeble gains, the rebounds that followed the deep recessions of 1973-75 and the early 1980s were robust. Within 18 months, real GDP growth touched 9% and remained well above average for several years. By contrast, the current recovery has failed to get much beyond 4% at best and has averaged less than  2.25% over the three years since the official end of the recession. Read the rest of this entry »

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The $2 trillion question

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on March 29, 2012

PUTTING a price on something that is priceless is, well, tricky. It is, however, possible to assign a number to how much damage is being done to that thing. In the case of the oceans, a conservative estimate of the cost of climate change is that by the year 2100 it will amount to nearly $2 trillion annually in 2010 dollars, or about 0.4% of global GDP. Any number that purports to describe an economy nine decades hence must be taken with a dollop of salt, of course. But it should not be dismissed out of hand.

Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth Stanton, economists at the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), a non-profit research organisation, arrived at their figure by looking at five measures: how much fisheries and tourism stand to lose and what the economic impact would be of rising sea levels, more storms and less carbon being absorbed by oceans. If the world continues to warm at its present rate and temperatures rise by 4°C by 2100, they reckon, the total will come to $1.98 trillion. If drastic measures are taken to cut emissions and they rise by only 2.2°C, it will be $612 billion. Read the rest of this entry »

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Double Dip: Britain Back In Recession, Say OECD Forecasters

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on March 29, 2012

Britain is likely to be back in a recession, according to international forecasters.

A recession is typically defined as two successive quarters of negative economic growth.

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said GDP – a broad measure for the total economy – is on course to have fallen by about 0.1% in the three months to the end of March.

The OECD also warned the recovery for the world’s biggest economies would be fragile, with the outlook for Europe “very weak”.

In its latest interim assessment of the global economy the OECD estimated the UK economy experienced an annualised retraction of 1.2% in the last quarter of 2011 and of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2012. Read the rest of this entry »

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Why Would China Want to Help Bail Out the Euro Zone?

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on November 2, 2011

By LEO CENDROWICZ / BRUSSELS

A Chinese paramilitary officer stands in front of the European Union flag outside the office of the E.U. delegation to China in Beijing on Oct. 28, 2011 Ng Han Guan / AP

In years to come, economists and historians might hark back to this week as the moment the balance of world power tipped toward China. The signs have been there for while, but the symbolism is especially potent now, in the few days between yet another euro-zone crisis summit, held in Brussels on Oct. 26, and the Nov. 3-4 G-20 summit in Cannes, France. The reason for choosing this as the watershed is crudely financial: at the Brussels summit, European leaders made a previously unthinkable appeal for China to use its $3.2 trillion currency reserves to help dig the euro out of its debt hole. And while the euro zone is anxiously awaiting an answer, China — inscrutable about its intentions — is milking the moment.

China is being targeted as a potential investor as part of a complicated scheme agreed to at the summit to leverage Europe’s bailout fund up to €1 trillion ($1.4 trillion), along with other potential outsiders like Russia, Brazil, Middle Eastern countries and the International Monetary Fund. On Oct. 27, French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who is hosting the Cannes G-20 gathering, phoned Chinese President Hu Jintao to seek backing. “If the Chinese, who have 60% of global reserves, decide to invest in the euro instead of the dollar, why refuse?” Sarkozy said after his call. “Why would we not accept that the Chinese have confidence in the euro zone and deposit a part of their surpluses in our funds or in our banks?”(See “Europe’s Debt Crisis Agreement: The Good, the Bad, the Ugly.”)

China can certainly spare the €100 billion ($140 billion) reportedly being discussed among officials. The real question is why China would want to plant it in a low-growth region like the euro zone. The bond-leverage scheme has already  Read the rest of this entry »

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The World’s Most Earthquake-Vulnerable Cities

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on September 20, 2011

Tiffany M. Luck

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In Pictures: The 20 Most Earthquake-Vulnerable Cities
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Earthquake Reaction And Overreaction
The World’s Most Earthquake-Vulnerable Cities
China’s Mandate Of Heaven
A Tale of Two Disasters
Quake Could Rock China Life
Economic Impact Of China’s Great Quake

The earthquake in China’s Sichuan province killed perhaps 15,000 people and left thousands of people buried under heaps of rubble.

And while a massive quake like this one–magnitude 7.9–would undoubtedly do damage to any world city, the death toll and degree of destruction has more to do with investment in well-designed infrastructure capable of handling a massive earthquake than the quake itself. Unlike the Beijing Olympic venues, built to withstand a magnitude 8.0 earthquake, the majority of China’s infrastructure in the area proved ill-prepared for a shock like Monday’s–felt as far away as Hanoi, Vietnam, and Bangkok, Thailand.

Blame the mortality spread on exponential population growth, increasing poverty and lax or nonexistent building codes. In short: Poor nations–like China–run far greater risk of earthquake fatalities than rich ones.

In Pictures: The World’s Most Earthquake-Vulnerable Cities

GeoHazards International, a nonprofit research group aiming to reduce suffering due to natural disasters, measured the lethal potential of seismic disasters facing small and large cities in Asia and the Americas–areas most at risk for seismic calamity. The sample cities spanned both developed and developing countries. Variables measured: building frailty, potential for landslides and fires, and the rescue, firefighting and life-saving medical abilities of local authorities.

Kathmandu, Nepal, ranked first in the 2001 study, followed by Istanbul, Turkey; Delhi, India; Quito, Ecuador; Manila, Philippines; and Islambad/Rawalpindi, Pakistan–all of which could expect fatalities in the tens of thousands if disaster struck. The only first-world cities on the list were in Japan: Tokyo, Nagoya and Kobe. Fatalities in these cities were estimated in the hundreds, not thousands.

Events since then show the estimates to be fairly accurate, if not low. The magnitude 7.6 quake that struck the Kashmir region of Pakistan in October 2005 killed more than 73,000 people, many in remote parts of the country, not dense urban centers like Islamabad. Geohazard’s study predicted a 6.0 hit on Pakistan’s capitol would kill 12,500 people.

In a 2004 paper, Brian E. Tucker of GeoHazards warned the problem would become worse, citing a study of estimated earthquake fatalities based on population growth and construction changes in northern India. One scary finding: A magnitude 8.3 earthquake striking Shillong might kill 60 times as many people as were killed during a similar size quake that hit in 1897, even though the population of the region has increased by only a factor of about eight since then. Reason: The replacement of single-story bamboo homes with multistory, poorly constructed concrete-frame structures, often on steep slopes, has made the population much more vulnerable. Read the rest of this entry »

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Unemployment Figures: It’s Going To Get Worse, Economists Say

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on August 17, 2011

Unemployme­nt hits almost 2.5 million.
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost

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Latin America’s housing boom: It’s not all froth

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on July 28, 2011

Big price hikes at the top end reflect a new, richer reality

DINNER-PARTY conversations about house prices, newspapers packed with ads for glitzy show-homes and properties changing hands for twice their price three years ago: recently Brazil’s business capital, São Paulo, has felt a lot like pre-bust London or New York. The property fever there and in other Latin American countries makes some fear that the region’s economic renaissance may have become over-exuberant. But the housing boom is grounded in rising prosperity rather than excessive debt.

In select parts of Brazil’s big cities, property prices are certainly racing ahead. IBOPE Inteligência, a research firm pioneering the country’s first statistically sound house-price index, says that in 2010 the average price of a new apartment in São Paulo rose by around a quarter and by much more in the poshest areas. Estate agents claim prices in such choice locations are up by 80% in three years; and that in similar parts of Rio de Janeiro, boosted by the discovery of huge oil reserves off the coast and the prospect of hosting the Olympics in 2016, they have doubled.

The property boom is being driven by a hefty increase in the number of potential buyers. During the past eight years the number of Brazilian households with incomes higher than ten times the minimum wage rose by more than half, to around 18m. The purchasing power of the newly well-off has been boosted further by greater availability of mortgages. Read the rest of this entry »

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China’s Mining Pit: Is Australia’s Economy Dangerously Dependent on China?

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on June 26, 2011

By MICHAEL SCHUMAN / PORT HEDLAND

If you’re ever in the Australian outpost of Port Hedland, make sure you’ve got a high limit on your credit card. The dusty

Fast boat to China: Port Hedland's capacity has tripled in eight years Adam Ferguson / VII Network for TIME Print

downtown of this isolated hamlet of 20,000 may be a few deserted streets lined with bank branches, the local cultural scene confined to drinking halls and pool tables. But when the bills come, you’d think you were in Beverly Hills. A brunch of two scrambled eggs, toast, hash browns and a Coca-Cola at a greasy diner comes to more than $20. A local hotel with rooms that are little more than sunbaked concrete cubes charges $300 a night. Taxi fares are outrageous enough to embarrass a Tokyo or London cabbie. The front window of a real estate agent’s office is plastered with flyers advertising one-story, three-bedroom homes — the kind found just about anywhere in Australia — on sale for more than $1 million. Why would anyone pay such crazy prices to stay here? “China needs its iron ore,” says Tony Swiericzuk, a local resident and a general manager at Australian mining outfit Fortescue Metals.

That explains everything. Favorably located on the northwestern coast of Australia, Port Hedland is the point through which the iron ore, copper and other resources dug up from the wastelands of the interior get shipped abroad — more and more to the voracious Chinese economy. Last year 70% of the exports from Port Hedland were bound for China, up from 45% in 2005. That surge has turned Port Hedland into an indispensable part of Australia’s economy and a hot destination for mining executives. The port can barely keep pace with Chinese demand. Its capacity has tripled over the past eight years, and Lindsay Copeman, acting chief executive of the Port Hedland Port Authority, expects it to double again by 2016. “It’s a very fast-evolving process,” Copeman says. “Instead of being a gentle growth curve, it’s an exponential curve, and we’re almost at a vertical wall.”(See pictures of Chinese investment in Africa.)

All of Australia has been enjoying that climb. The Chinese-driven boom at Port Hedland is symbolic of the growing giant’s impact on the entire Australian economy. Chinese demand for Australian exports, especially raw materials, was one big reason Australia didn’t fall into recession after the 2008 financial crisis. Since China will get even hungrier for natural resources as its economy roars ahead, Australia is likely to become more and more dependent on the Middle Kingdom. Ben Hunt, an economist at the International Monetary Fund, estimates that roughly 12% of Australia’s GDP growth during the past 10 years can be attributed to trade with China; over the next decade, that share could reach 35%. Colin Barnett, premier of Western Australia, Port Hedland’s home state, says China has been “probably the single biggest factor” behind the region’s strong performance during the Great Recession. “China’s almost insatiable demand for natural resources continues to drive our economy,” he says. Read the rest of this entry »

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The man who screwed an entire country

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on June 11, 2011

The Economist

The Berlusconi era will haunt Italy for years to come

SILVIO BERLUSCONI has a lot to smile about. In his 74 years, he has created a media empire that made him Italy’s richest man. He has dominated politics since 1994 and is now Italy’s longest-serving prime minister since Mussolini. He has survived countless forecasts of his imminent departure. Yet despite his personal successes, he has been a disaster as a national leader—in three ways.

Two of them are well known. The first is the lurid saga of his “Bunga Bunga” sex parties, one of which has led to the unedifying spectacle of a prime minister being put on trial in Milan on charges of paying for sex with a minor. The Rubygate trial has besmirched not just Mr Berlusconi, but also his country.

However shameful the sexual scandal has been, its impact on Mr Berlusconi’s performance as a politician has been limited, so this newspaper has largely ignored it. We have, however, long protested about his second failing: his financial shenanigans. Over the years, he has been tried more than a dozen times for fraud, false accounting or bribery. His defenders claim that he has never been convicted, but this is untrue. Several cases have seen convictions, only for them to be set aside because the convoluted proceedings led to trials being timed out by a statute of limitations—at least twice because Mr Berlusconi himself changed the law. That was why this newspaper argued in April 2001 that he was unfit to lead Italy. Read the rest of this entry »

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The 2% Economy

Posted by Ram Kumar Shrestha on June 5, 2011

By RANA FOROOHAR

John Kenneth Galbraith, one of the most famous practitioners of the high-minded guessing game known as economics,

Illustration by Harry Campbell for TIME

once noted that in the dismal science, “the majority is always wrong.” How else to explain the fact that so many economists upgraded their growth forecasts for the American economy at the end of last year, often to well above 3%, when the numbers so far this year have come in below 2%? The plunge is due to many things, from higher food and oil prices to supply-chain disruptions in the wake of the Japanese nuclear disaster to a terrible housing market. (The latest Case-Shiller data show that home prices have fallen further than they did during the Great Depression.)

But the bottom line is that the 2% economy is reshuffling the deck on everything from the debt debate to job growth to the likely outcome of the 2012 elections. Here in the U.S., there won’t be many winners.(See if Wall Street is aiding the recovery or strangling it.)

To understand why, a little math is in order. When the economy grows faster, tax receipts go up too. That can make a big difference in the debt picture. For example, if the economy grew steadily at, say, 3.9% — which the Fed, in its own moment of irrational exuberance back in February, predicted it might for the year — our national debt (including Social Security and other entitlements) would decline over the next decade from roughly 100% of GDP to a relatively svelte 83%. No more excruciating conversations about cutting Grandma’s health benefits or squeezing another five kids into already overcrowded classrooms. If, on the other hand, we grow at 1.8% over the next 10 years, debt rises to 144% of GDP. That makes us Greece. Read the rest of this entry »

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